The K-economy: the biggest business positioning opportunity that most founders are ignoring

The IMF warns of it, the data confirms it, and the smartest brands are already taking action. Is your strategy ready for a two-speed Europe?

There's an image that sums up what's happening in the global economy today better than any graph: the letter K. One branch is rising sharply. The other is falling. And the center, that space where most consumers and businesses used to be, is emptying out.

This is not a political metaphor or media hype. It is the technical description that economists, analysts, and international institutions are using to explain why macroeconomic indicators are positive, yet many citizens and small and medium-sized businesses barely notice any improvement in their daily lives.

"The image of the K allows us to reconcile two seemingly opposing perceptions: very solid macroeconomic data and a still fragile social sentiment." Gabriel Justiniano Vázquez, El Economista, February 15, 2026.

For founders building a brand in Europe right now, understanding this dynamic isn't an academic exercise. It's an urgent strategic decision.

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What exactly is K-economy?

For decades, economic cycles were described with simple letters: a V (sharp fall and rapid recovery), a U (long fall with gradual recovery), or an L (fall with no recovery). The K adds something new: bifurcation . Two distinct paths, for two distinct groups, within the same economy, at the same time.

In the United States (the most documented case) the diagnosis is conclusive:

~50%

Total consumer spending is concentrated in the top 10% of households.

Moody's Analytics, 2025

-2 digits

Decline in traffic to low-cost restaurants among low-income earners in Q3 2025

McDonald's, Q3 2025 results

-10%

of Americans in the middle class since 1971, a trend that continues today

WARC GEISTE 2026

The IMF warned in November 2025 that, without structural reforms, the gap between prosperous households and the rest will widen even further in Europe. The Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2026, according to the consensus of the OECD, the ECB, and the European Commission, but that growth is profoundly unevenly distributed.

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Europe: less extreme, but equally bifurcated

While the United States is tracing a very sharp K-shaped curve, Europe is showing a gentler slope, but the bifurcation exists and is accelerating.

As El Economista points out in its analysis of February 15, 2026:

Growth in the services sector is closely linked to spending by middle- and upper-income households. They are the ones who benefit most from rising housing prices, the appreciation of their investments, and better access to credit. This is the upward-sloping portion of the K-shaped curve. El Economista, February 15, 2026

In practice, market data clearly confirms this. Luxury tourism grew by nearly 9% year-on-year in 2025, more than double the growth of the mid- and low-income segments. European airlines have expanded their premium cabins as a primary revenue driver. Meanwhile, major consumer brands are reporting volume declines in the lower-middle-income segment and are redesigning their formats to offer more affordable options.

Source: Democrata.es

Luxury tourism grew by 9% year-on-year in 2025, more than double the growth of the mid-range and low-end segments. Income segmentation in the European market has never been so pronounced. WARC / Euromonitor, 2025

And labour market segmentation reproduces this same logic. Workers in high-productivity sectors (technology, finance, professional services) see their wages and working conditions improve. At the base of the market, more unstable and lower-paying jobs predominate. The K phenomenon is not just a consumption phenomenon. It is structural.

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So, what is the opportunity that most founders are ignoring?

Here's the straightforward answer: when the centre of a market empties out, two enormous positioning gaps appear, and almost no one is clearly filling them. Most European brands are still building for an average consumer who, statistically, no longer exists. Same message, same price range, same value proposition designed for a middle class that is dissolving in two opposite directions. The result: brands that don't resonate with anyone strongly enough to generate real loyalty.

The opportunity has three layers, and they reinforce each other:

1

The bifurcation creates positioning gaps that few brands are filling.

In each category (travel, food, fashion, services), there's an underutilised premium space and a value space lacking trust. Founders who move now, before the market reorganises, capture a position with far less direct competition.

2

Those who position themselves today will capture customers before the market becomes saturated.

The escapist economy (estimated at $13.9 trillion by 2028) still lacks clear leaders in most categories in Europe. The window of opportunity is not indefinite: in 18-24 months, brands with greater resources will begin shifting budgets toward these spaces. The time is now.

3

The emptying of the centre forces a decision that most people postpone, and that is exactly the advantage.

Taking a stand in a bifurcated economy requires strategic clarity. Most founders avoid that decision for fear of losing their current audience. But that indecision is what makes them invisible to everyone. Brands that decide first gain the ground left vacant by the undecided.

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What do these changes mean for your brand strategy?

Identifying the opportunity is the first step. Executing it is another. According to Euromonitor, 52% of European consumers say they only buy from brands they fully trust (2023), which means that positioning is no longer won with price or reach, but with clarity.

Here are the three specific levers to take action:

3 strategic implications for founders in Europe

1. Position yourself clearly on one of the two sides of the K.

Brands that try to cater to both ends of the spectrum dilute their message. Lindt raised prices by 15.8% in H1 2025 and still grew organically by 11.2%, with Europe leading the way at +17.7% (Lindt & Sprüngli Half-Year Report, July 2025). The key wasn't price: it was the consistency of its value proposition at every touchpoint . If you're going for premium, go for it. If you're competing on value, do it with confidence, not just on price.

2. The escapist economy is real and it's growing.

66% of European consumers declare they "live for today" (WARC GEISTE 2026). McCann Worldgroup estimates that the escapist economy —experiences over possessions— will reach $13.9 trillion by 2028. In Europe, this translates into gastronomy, short trips, wellness, and culture. Brands that connect with this emotional state have a huge window of opportunity for positioning before the market becomes saturated.

3. A two-speed economy creates systemic risks that affect your business.

As El Economista warns: "When the data is positive but a segment of the population doesn't perceive improvements, discontent grows and opens the door to more radical responses." This isn't just politics; it's a market risk. Social instability affects consumer confidence, regulation, and the cost of doing business. Founders building brands today need to incorporate this variable into their medium-term planning.

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The question you should ask yourself today

Positive macroeconomic data (expanding PMIs, stable employment, rising markets) can create a false sense of security. As El Economista accurately points out:

To understand the current cycle, it's not enough to know whether the PMI reads 51 or 53. The key question is who is driving that growth, who is being left behind, and how long an expansion based on unequal distribution can be sustained. El Economista, February 15, 2026

The same question applies to your brand: who are you really serving? Are you building for the upwardly mobile branch or the downwardly mobile one? Or are you still aiming for a dwindling center?

Stability depends not only on the PMI being above 50, but also on growth being shared. El Economista, February 15, 2026

At Kartika, we work with European founders who are navigating this exact landscape. Positioning isn't just a pretty branding exercise; it's the most strategic decision you can make when the market is forking. If you're unclear about where your brand stands on the K, the market will place you wherever it wants.

Do you feel that your brand communicates but doesn't retain customers? That growth depends too much on you and not enough on the system? The problem is rarely the channel.

Start by diagnosing where your positioning breaks down:

Brand Clarity Diagnostic >

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Sources: El Economista (Feb. 15, 2026) · WARC GEISTE 2026 · Lindt & Sprüngli H1 2025 · Euromonitor 2023 · Moody's Analytics 2025 · IMF Nov. 2025 McCann Worldgroup via WARC